GLOBAL AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW 2026: THE ERA OF "EFFICIENCY AGRICULTURE"

Entering 2026, the global agricultural sector is undergoing a strong shift from mass production to optimizing efficiency through technology.

1. Technology Trends and Digital Transformation

• AI and Automation: After the testing phase (2023-2025), integrated technology packages (Robotics, IoT sensors) will become standard in large farms in the US, Brazil, and the EU to cope with labor shortages and high input costs.

• Precision Farming: Farming decisions based on real-time data will help reduce fertilizer and plant protection product usage by 15%-20%, aiming for Net Zero goals.

2. The Impact of Climate Change and Geopolitics

• Weather: Forecasts for 2026 indicate extreme weather patterns shifting from El Niño to La Niña (or a neutral but volatile state). Brazil is expected to have its wettest spring in 14 years, boosting grain and coffee output, exerting downward price pressure on the global market.

• Green Barriers: The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and carbon footprint standards will be strictly applied, forcing exporting countries to ensure supply chain transparency.

VIETNAM AGRICULTURE 2026: FROM "QUANTITY" TO "QUALITY"

After reaching a record export turnover of nearly $70 billion in 2025, Vietnam's agriculture in 2026 enters a phase of "screening" and value chain upgrading.

1. Key Commodities

Commodity	Forecast Trend 2026	Expert Insight
Rice	Prices may face slight downward pressure due to abundant global supply (India, Thailand).	Vietnam to focus on high-quality, low-emission rice segments (The 1 Million Hectare Scheme).
Coffee	A "cooling down" phase after the price fever of 2024-2025. Prices stabilize at a high level but without spikes.	Major pressure from EUDR; farming households failing to meet sustainability standards will be eliminated from the game.
Durian	Continues to be the export "star," aiming for the $10 billion mark for the fruit and vegetable sector.	Increased competition from Thailand and the Philippines; quality and growing area codes are vital factors.
Seafood	Strong recovery in US and EU markets; shrimp and pangasius maintain their positions.	Need to pay attention to anti-subsidy lawsuits and technical barriers in the US market.

2. Strategic Shifts

• Green Logistics: Vietnam will focus on investing in cold storage infrastructure and internal transportation in the Mekong Delta to reduce post-harvest losses (currently still high at around 20%-25%).

• Agricultural E-commerce: Selling agricultural products directly through cross-border platforms (TikTok, Amazon, Alibaba) will account for approximately 10%-15% of total export turnover.

SPECIAL REPORT: CENTRAL HIGHLANDS 2026

1. Structural Shift: The "Takeover" of Billion-Dollar Crops

By 2026, the crop map of the Central Highlands will no longer simply be "coffee - rubber".

• Durian: Will become the crop with the highest economic value in Dak Lak and Lam Dong. Many areas planted between 2021-2022 will begin peak harvesting in 2026, causing regional output to increase by about 30-40%.

• Coffee: Acreage tends to stabilize but value increases thanks to Specialty Coffee. Vietnam maintains its dominant position in Robusta, but pressure from Brazil (after a record 2025 crop) will cause 2026 coffee prices to cool down, fluctuating at a more sustainable level compared to the peak in 2024.

• Pepper: Entering a new price increase cycle. After years of neglect, pepper acreage in Gia Lai and Dak Nong is recovering. 2026 is forecast to be a highly profitable year for pepper growers as global supply remains in deficit.

2. Biggest Challenge: EUDR Green Barrier

2026 is the time when the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation) has gone into stable operation. The Central Highlands is the region most directly affected.

• Digital Traceability: Farmers are mandatory to have GPS coordinates and plantation maps to prove no deforestation occurred after 2020. "Ambiguous" growing areas will be removed from supply chains to Europe.

• Carbon Credits: Multi-strata farming models (intercropping coffee - durian - shade trees) will begin to generate additional income from selling carbon credits. This is a new direction helping Central Highlands farmers increase income by 5%-10%.

3. Detailed Forecast of Key Commodities

Commodity	Value Forecast (2026)	Dominant Trend
Coffee	Stable at high levels (Expected $3,500 - $4,500/ton)	Focus on sustainability certificates (4C, Rain Forest) and emission reduction.
Durian	Fierce competition	Shift from fresh export to deep processing (freezing, drying) to reduce seasonal pressure.
Macadamia	Steady growth	Dak Lak and Lam Dong affirm their position as the "Macadamia Capital" of Southeast Asia, serving Chinese and Middle Eastern markets.
Flowers & Veg (Lam Dong)	Comprehensive digitalization	Applying AI in greenhouses to optimize water and fertilizer usage in the face of prolonged drought conditions.

4. Impact of Climate Change (Drought)

In 2026, irrigation water shortages in the Central Highlands during the dry season are forecast to worsen due to the cumulative impact of climate change.

• Irrigation Technology: Drip irrigation and automatic water-saving irrigation systems (Smart Irrigation) will become mandatory investments to maintain productivity.

• Crop Conversion: Areas with severe water shortages will shift entirely from rice and coffee to more drought-tolerant crops or medicinal plants under the forest canopy.

5. Expert Insight for Investors & Farmers

"Central Highlands in 2026 has no room for the 'plant-and-chop' mindset or spontaneous production. This is the phase of Precision Agriculture and Chain Linkage. Areas with standardized growing area codes and organic farming practices will hold the power to set market prices."